Authors:

Liam Brunt(Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics)

Edmund Cannon (School of Economics, University of Bristol)

Abstract:

We show how probate inventories can be used to measure the seasonal pattern of grain stocks and hence provide direct information on both intra-year and inter-year storage (“carryover”). The correct procedure to quantify total carryover is a ratio-of-means statistic that consistently estimates the appropriate weighted average of individual carryover decisions. Using an existing data base of inventories, we show that the seasonal pattern is plausible, robust to alternative specifications and consistent with an alternative way of estimating carryover. We find that average carryover in the period 1600–1750 was very low in Kent and virtually zero in Cornwall.

Keywords:

Grain storage; Probate inventories; Food supply

Published on Explorations in Economic History,Volume 102,2026,

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101784.

Open access and free to download

Fig. 1. Proportion of inventories with corn measured by bushel.

Graphs report the proportions of probates with corn quantities quantified by bushel (or related measure) for those probates identified as farms.