Authors

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist(Department of History, Stockholm University)

Peter Thejll (Danish Meteorological Institute)

Andrea Seim (Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology, Institute of Forest Sciences, Albert Ludwig University of Freiburg)

Claudia Hartl (Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany)

Jan Esper (Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University)

Abstract

Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of \(-\,0.41\) considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of \(-\,0.63\) at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.

Published on Cliometrica(Jaunary 2022)

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