Articles
Keynes's trading on Wall Street: did he follow the same behaviour when investing for himself and for King's?
Eleonora Sanfilippo
Pages 1-25
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565020000256
In the last few years Keynes's investment activity, both as an individual trader and as a manager of institutions’ portfolios, has attracted attention in the specialised literature. Recently his investments on Wall Street, in particular – both on his own account (Cristiano, Marcuzzo and Sanfilippo 2018) and on behalf of King's College, Cambridge (Chambers and Kabiri 2016) – have been analysed, and the evident connection with his theoretical analysis of the functioning of the financial markets contained in chapter 12 of The General Theory has been duly stressed. This article aims to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of Keynes's trading behaviour on Wall Street by providing a detailed comparison of his investment choices when he traded for himself and for King's. There are similarities, as might be expected, but also significant differences, well worth investigating. As far as the differences are concerned, one of the most striking is to be seen, for instance, in his attitude when, after a period of bull market in 1936, he had to face the spring 1937 burst of the speculative bubble and subsequent recession. Analysis of his behaviour in this specific case reveals that the event took him by surprise but his reaction differed with regard to his personal investments and the King's investments. The prevalence of a ‘buy and hold’ strategy, which, according to Chambers and Kabiri's reconstruction (2016), marked Keynes's behaviour in general (and also in this particular case) when he invested on behalf of King's, was not always his typical choice when the investments were undertaken on his own account. A tentative explanation of this result, which is also grounded on some different features characterising the two portfolios and not sufficiently investigated in previous studies, is at last provided in the article.
Performance and development of a thin stock market: the Stockholm Stock Exchange 1912–2017
Kristian Rydqvist, Rong Guo
Pages 26-44
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565020000104
We estimate historical stock returns for Swedish listed companies in a newly constructed data set of daily stock prices that spans more than 100 years. Stock returns exhibit all the familiar characteristics. The growth of the public sector depressed the stock market, and the process of globalization revitalized it. Banks played an important role in the early development of the stock market. There was little trading in the past, and we examine the effects on return measurement from missing data. Stock selection and the replacement of missing transaction prices through search back procedures or limit orders make little difference to a value-weighted stock price index, while ignoring the price effects of capital operations makes a big difference.
A reappraisal of Joseph Brennan and the achievements of Irish banking and currency policy 1922–1943
Eoin Drea, Frank Barry
Pages 45-66
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565021000019
Joseph Brennan, as secretary of the Irish Department of Finance (1923–7) and chair of the Irish Currency Commission (1927–43), was a pivotal influence on Irish banking and currency affairs. Yet, within the existing literature, his adherence to conservative British norms is seen as providing a ‘bleak prescription’ for the Irish economy. However, such a view ignores the fact that Brennan was far from dogmatic on banking and currency issues and underplays his incrementalist, and often internationalist, approach to the development of Irish monetary institutions. Brennan's actions up to the early 1940s were based on the realities of Ireland's slowly receding economic and intellectual dependency on Britain, a ‘dependency’ often misrepresented in the existing literature as a more primitive, pre-Keynesian, conservative approach. However, rather than acting as a restraining influence on Irish economic development, the policies Brennan advocated enabled Ireland to avoid the instability associated with many smaller, emerging nation states in the 1920s and 1930s. The focus on continuity – which guaranteed currency and banking stability – represented the realities of Ireland's reliance on the sluggish British economy in the decades after independence. Brennan's achievement, in helping to sustain banking and currency stability notwithstanding economic uncertainty, a fragile political environment (and suspicious banking interests), deserves wider acknowledgement.
A perfect symbiosis: Curaçao, the Netherlands and financial offshore services, 1951–2013
Tijn van Beurden, Joost Jonker
Pages 67-95
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S096856502000013X
Analysing Curaçao as an offshore financial centre from its inception to its gradual decline, we find that it originated and evolved in close concert with the demand for such services from Western countries. Dutch banks and multinationals spearheaded the creation of institutions on the island facilitating tax avoidance. In this they were aided and abetted by their government, which firmly supported the Antilles in getting access to bilateral tax treaties, notably the one with the United States. Until the mid 1980s Curaçao flourished, but then found it increasingly difficult to keep a competitive advantage over other offshore centres. Meanwhile the Curaçao connection had enabled the Netherlands to turn itself into a hub for international revenue flows that today still feed both Dutch tax income and specialised financial, legal and accounting services.
Origins of arbitrage
Geoffrey Poitras
Pages 96-123
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565021000020
Following a review of the etymology and modern usage of the term ‘arbitrage’, this article explores the relevance of historical context to possible instances of ancient arbitrage activity. Types of possible ‘arbitrage’ associated with the use of overvalued coinage in regions of Greek influence are considered. Comparison with Roman civilization reveals the relevance of social attitudes and legal institutions to the ability to execute arbitrage trades. Specific attention is given to the possibility of arbitrage across the Roman frontier to India and the impact of debasements during the imperial period. Recognizing that sources prior to early modern times are scant, numismatic, epigraphic and literary evidence that is available to make inferences about ancient arbitrage activity is assessed.
The foreign exchange market in Barcelona at the beginning of the fifteenth century
Angela Orlandi, Giacomo Toscano
Pages124-151
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565021000032
Based on the reconstruction of the monetary flows of a merchant-banking company operating in Barcelona at the beginning of the fifteenth century, this study aims to understand the reasons behind exchange-rate variations in the local currency with respect to the principal European markets, as well as the modalities and predictability of such oscillations. By using real rather than ‘hearsay’ rates, we present new assessments of the seasonal character of exchange rates and their sensitivity to conditions of currency abundance or shortage. In addition, econometric analysis shows that exchange-rate volatility was quite modest and dependent on geographic and macroeconomic factors, such as the system of commercial flows.
