Capital market development over the long run: the portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries
David A Bogle and others
Pages 370–398
https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heab017
What shapes and drives capital market development over the long run? In this paper, using the asset portfolios of UK life assurers, we examine the role of regulation, historical contingency, and political reactions to events on the long-run development of the UK capital market. Government response to events such as war, hegemony-secured peace, and the wider macroeconomic environment was the ultimate determinant of major changes in asset allocation since 1800. Furthermore, when we compare the UK with the United States, we find that regulation played a limited role in shaping the asset portfolios of the UK life assurance industry.
Fiscal capacity in “responsible government”colonies: the Cape Colony in comparative perspective, c. 1865–1910
Abel Gwaindepi
Pages 340–369
https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heab019
This study contributes to debates on the efficacy of institutions in settler colonies by comparing the Cape Colony’s fiscal path to the experiences of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. I find that the Cape’s fiscal trajectory was divergent. Agricultural and mining taxes were important surrogates of income taxes in other colonies, but the Cape’s narrow interests pushed for insulation from direct taxes. This made the Cape’s fiscal path unsustainable with comparatively low per capita taxes, high deficits, and the highest level of indebtedness. I argue that the instrumentality of ‘‘responsible government” status was conditional on how imported self-government institutions were endogenized.
Income tax progressivity and inflation during the world wars
Sara Torregrosa-Hetland and Oriol Sabaté
Pages 311–339
https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heab020
This paper studies the impact of inflation on income taxes in Sweden, the UK, and the United States during the world wars. As tax reforms were rising top marginal rates and reducing exemption thresholds, extraordinary levels of inflation eroded the real value of exemptions, brackets, and deductions. The micro-simulation of actual and alternative scenarios shows that inflation made the tax less progressive, particularly in Sweden during World War I and the UK during World War II. Nevertheless, its redistributive effect increased due to the related growth in tax revenue. Inflation contributed to transform a “class tax’’ into a “mass tax”.
Scuttle for shelter: flight-to-safety and political uncertainty during the Spanish Second Republic
Stefano Battilossi and others
Pages 423–447
https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heab022
The Spanish Second Republic was a unique experiment of democratization in interwar Europe, which was characterized by extreme levels of political uncertainty. We find that investors responded to shifts in uncertainty by selling stocks in favor of government bonds—a behavior known as flight-to-safety. Additionally, we find that political uncertainty caused stock market stress and induced significant differences in the cross-section of expected stock returns, consistent with the exposures to political uncertainty. The fact that investors recurrently scuttled to shelter into government bonds suggests that they did not perceive a radical change in the political regime as an immediate and credible threat.
Reassessing Ireland’s economic development through the lens of sustainable development
Luke Mcgrath and others
Pages 399–422
https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heab025
After a century of Irish independence, this study constructs long run Genuine Savings estimates, a leading economic indicator of sustainable development, to reassess Irish economic history from the vantage of sustainable development. The main difference uncovered surrounds the post-1950 period where Ireland failed to achieve economic convergence and was considered an economic failure in growth terms. From a sustainability perspective, Ireland may have been an overachiever during a “great transition” of sustainable development driven by improved institutions and policies. The findings show the value of the sustainable development perspective in shedding new light on a country’s development experience.
The effects of lender of last resort on financial intermediation during the great depression in Japan
Masami Imai and others
Pages 448–478
https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heab026
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) expanded its liquidity provision in response to a series of financial panics from 1931–1932; however, the BOJ restricted its lending mostly to correspondent banks. We use the BOJ’s preferential treatment of correspondent banks as a quasi-experimental setting to examine the impact of central bank lending on financial intermediation. We find that deposits and loans did not fall as fast for correspondent banks as for other banks during the panic period. Furthermore, correspondent banks were less likely to be closed. The results suggest that central banks’ liquidity provision plays a critical backstop role during financial stringency.
